EXPECTED DA FROM JULY 2012 MAY BE 7% AGAIN
Subject to AICIN data for the next two months remaining in the current level, the following assumption is being made.
The AICPIN data for April 12 has been recently published. It rises to 4 points and reached 205. We know that D.A. is calculated on the basis for 12 months average. To calculate the D.A. payable from 1st July 2012, we need the figures of May and June 2012 which are to be released on 30.06.12 and 31.07.12 respectively. If the data remains for the next two months in the same level, i.e. 205, the hike will be 7%. Even if it marginally drops 1 point in any of the months, the rise will be still 7% which will take the total D.A. to 72%.
Considering the latest hike in petrol price, it is unlikely that the index may drop in the next months. So we can guess the next D.A. hike @7%, revising our previous guess work.